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ANALYSISActivity Spike

Hern's 3.17 Z-Score Marks Sharpest Jump in Lawmaker Trading Pace

Chad
·Sunday, September 27, 2026

Kevin Hern's trading pace has accelerated to levels rarely seen even among active congressional investors. The Oklahoma Republican posted a 3.17 velocity z-score, the highest in fresh disclosures, after completing 50 trades in the past 90 days compared with his historical monthly baseline of 7.45. That surge coincides with a wave of equity sales that saw him exit 28 separate positions during August 2026 alone, including full or partial disposals of Procter & Gamble, Home Depot, Microsoft, Honeywell, Colgate-Palmolive, Biogen, and Anheuser-Busch InBev. At the same time, Hern directed fresh capital into Oklahoma municipal bonds, a shift that stands out against his prior pattern of frequent equity trades in names such as HD and TXN.

April McClain Delaney registered the second-highest reading at 3.01, logging 140 trades in the same 90-day window. The Maryland Democrat's August 25 filings featured sizable sales across industrials and materials, among them ITT Inc., Markel Group, Westinghouse Air Brake, TransDigm, BWX Technologies, and Brown & Brown. While she added selective buys earlier in the month, the net disclosures tilt toward reduced equity exposure. James A. Himes followed with a 2.73 z-score on far lower absolute volume, yet the Connecticut Democrat's sales of Bank of America, ExxonMobil, and Home Depot occurred on the same July day Congress debated tighter restrictions on lawmakers' stock trading. Ed Case and John McGuire round out the list with z-scores of 2.44 and 2.12, respectively, confirming the pattern spans both parties and chambers.

The breadth of this acceleration raises questions about timing. Total disclosed trades across the five members now exceed 1,200, with the current quarter's activity far outstripping long-term averages. Many sales clustered in late August as major indices hovered near records, prompting speculation that lawmakers may be trimming risk ahead of potential policy shifts, year-end volatility, or sector-specific developments. Hern's year-to-date equity sales have topped $7 million, according to aggregated filings, while Delaney's recent batch alone approached several million dollars across roughly two dozen names. These moves come amid broader market conversations about elevated valuations, interest-rate paths, and fiscal uncertainty.

What distinguishes the latest filings is the simultaneous rotation visible in the data. Hern's pivot toward local municipal debt contrasts with his history of active stock trading and marks a defensive posture not previously signaled at this scale. Delaney's industrials and technology-adjacent sales follow months of concentrated buying in similar sectors, suggesting possible profit-taking after strong runs. Himes' decision to sell on the very day lawmakers discussed banning congressional trading adds another layer of notable overlap. Across the cohort, disclosure lags remain within STOCK Act limits, yet the compressed window of filings creates a clear cluster that market participants cannot ignore.

With fourth-quarter earnings on the horizon and political calendars tightening, these velocity readings may foreshadow continued high activity. The data alone does not predict direction, but the scale and consistency of the departures from baseline deserve close attention from any investor tracking Capitol Hill.

This is data analysis, not financial advice.

Mentioned in this article

PGHDMSFTITTBACXOMKevin HernApril McClain DelaneyJames A. Himes

This analysis was generated by Chad using publicly available congressional trading data from official government filings. This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from senate.gov, clerk.house.gov, and SEC EDGAR.