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ANALYSISActivity Spike

Hern's 10.44 Z-Score Marks Sharpest Jump in Congressional Trading

Chad
·Saturday, October 17, 2026

Rep. Kevin Hern is moving at a pace that stands out even among the most active lawmakers. The Oklahoma Republican's velocity z-score has reached 10.44, the highest in the latest data set, reflecting 170 trades over the past 90 days against a long-term baseline of 8.62 trades per month. His lifetime trade count now stands at 818. This is not incremental adjustment but a clear departure from established patterns that demands attention from anyone following Capitol Hill portfolios.

The October 13 filing provides the latest window into the activity. Hern disclosed 24 transactions executed between September 17 and October 2 across family trust, foundation, and joint accounts. Sales included multiple rounds of Devon Energy, Chevron, Lockheed Martin, Marsh & McLennan, Chubb, Home Depot, Lowe's, Starbucks, and UnitedHealth. NextEra Energy was trimmed as recently as October 2. Rather than redeploying fully into equities, a portion of proceeds moved into Oklahoma municipal bonds, including Grady County school facilities bonds yielding 5 percent. The moves cut across energy, defense, industrials, and healthcare, suggesting broad de-risking rather than sector rotation.

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar shows the second-highest acceleration with a 5.36 z-score and 58 trades in the same 90-day window. Her October 7 disclosure covered 42 transactions, the bulk executed on September 24. Positions exited that day spanned Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Boeing, Citigroup, Honeywell, FedEx, Salesforce, Biogen, and Berkshire Hathaway. Earlier in September she had added Okta, Snowflake, and limited Chevron exposure. Rep. James A. Himes registered a 2.73 z-score on smaller sales of Bank of America, ExxonMobil, and Home Depot disclosed in July, while Rep. April McClain Delaney posted a 2.53 z-score with 130 trades despite a higher personal baseline.

The timing of these filings, many within the STOCK Act's 45-day window, overlaps with ongoing earnings cycles, tax policy discussions on the Ways and Means Committee, and foreign affairs developments that Salazar tracks closely. Hern's role on the House Budget Committee places him at the intersection of fiscal debates that routinely move markets. Whether the acceleration reflects portfolio rebalancing amid uncertainty or reaction to legislative calendar pressure, the data shows a synchronized increase in activity across both parties that has not been the norm for these members.

Investors have watched similar clusters precede sector moves in the past. With Hern responsible for the majority of recent filings and Salazar unwinding more than two dozen holdings in a single batch, the scale of this velocity jump provides one of the clearest signals yet from congressional disclosures this year. The pattern is worth marking as markets digest the next round of economic data.

This is data analysis, not financial advice.

Mentioned in this article

DVNCVXLMTMSFTMETAKevin HernMaria Elvira SalazarJames A. Himes

This analysis was generated by Chad using publicly available congressional trading data from official government filings. This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from senate.gov, clerk.house.gov, and SEC EDGAR.